Stephen Nover

I understand homecourt means something, especially in the Big East. But I don't find it difficult to ask Marquette to just beat Villanova by playing the Golden Eagles on the money at slightly elevated juice.

Marquette rolled past the Wildcats, 87-74, when it hosted them on Jan. 24.

The Golden Eagles are better in all facets. They rank higher than Villanova both in scoring and defense. They also rank in the top-five in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio. Villanova doesn't come close to matching that.

The Wildcats have been struggling lately, too. Since their big victory against St. John's, the Wildcats have lost to Providence and Connecticut by a combined average of 10 points.

Memphis hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Orlando hasn't won three straight since Dec. 1. 

I don't see these trends changing here. Memphis is the far superior team and isn't going to lack motivation after a 127-113 road loss to the Pacers on Thursday night. A big takeaway from that game is the Grizzlies finally are fully healthy. 

Orlando also played last night, beating the Hawks at home, 114-108. The Magic still don't have Jalen Suggs back in their lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with a bruised thigh. Suggs is the Magic's third-leading scorer and an excellent defensive player. 

Memphis is 36-19. Orlando is below .500. The Magic have lost 14 of their past 21 games.

The Grizzlies average 19 more points per game than the Magic and rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.

The point spread is more than reasonable to back the Grizzlies.

Friday Free Play

Pistons minus 4 at Spurs

Often a team suffers a letdown in their second game after losing a superstar following winning initially. I believe that's going to be the case with the Spurs in their game tonight against the Pistons.

San Antonio gave an inspired, gutty performance in upsetting the Suns on Thursday after learning Victor Wembanyama would be out for the rest of the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. All Wembanyama was doing was averaging 24.3  points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists while leading the league in blocked shots with 3.8 per game. Keep in mind, too, that Charles Bassey, who is Wembanyama's backup, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Also please note that the Spurs defeated Phoenix in Austin not San Antonio. The game tonight also will be in Austin.

It takes two, though, to make the right handicap. The key question is have the Pistons improved enough this season to justify laying mid-range points with them on the road?

I'm going to say yes. The Pistons enter this matchup with a season-best four-game win streak. Their 29-26 record at this point of the season is their best mark in seven years. Only six teams have had a better record than the Pistons since Dec. 21. Detroit is 18-9 during its past 27 games, registering the fifth-best defensive rating and nine-best offensive ranking during this time span.

San Antonio, by comparison, is 24-29 and has lost 13 of its last 19 games.

The wild-card is Detroit last played nine days ago. The Pistons went into All-Star break riding a lot of confidence and optimism. I have to trust that J.B. Bickerstaff will have the Pistons ready to play to keep their momentum going.

Often a team suffers a letdown in their second game after losing a superstar following winning initially. I believe that's going to be the case with the Spurs in their game tonight against the Pistons.

San Antonio gave an inspired, gutty performance in upsetting the Suns on Thursday after learning Victor Wembanyama would be out for the rest of the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. All Wembanyama was doing was averaging 24.3  points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists while leading the league in blocked shots with 3.8 per game. Keep in mind, too, that Charles Bassey, who is Wembanyama's backup, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Also please note that the Spurs defeated Phoenix in Austin not San Antonio. The game tonight also will be in Austin.

It takes two, though, to make the right handicap. The key question is have the Pistons improved enough this season to justify laying mid-range points with them on the road?

I'm going to say yes. The Pistons enter this matchup with a season-best four-game win streak. Their 29-26 record at this point of the season is their best mark in seven years. Only six teams have had a better record than the Pistons since Dec. 21. Detroit is 18-9 during its past 27 games, registering the fifth-best defensive rating and nine-best offensive ranking during this time span.

San Antonio, by comparison, is 24-29 and has lost 13 of its last 19 games.

The wild-card is Detroit last played nine days ago. The Pistons went into All-Star break riding a lot of confidence and optimism. I have to trust that J.B. Bickerstaff will have the Pistons ready to play to keep their momentum going.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 21-10-1 on his last 32 premium plays. Stephen is 13-3 on his college basketball premium plays this month. All of Stephen's plays come with his signature deep dive analysis.)