Sean Murphy

My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Florida at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Canadiens have struggled of late, dropping five straight games, including the first three contests of their current road trip. However, they’ve had Florida’s number this season, winning both previous meetings by a combined 7-1 score. While the Panthers remain a formidable opponent, this early afternoon start could be a bit of a flat spot for them, especially after picking up back-to-back wins to open their homestand.

Florida hasn't been blowing teams out recently, with its last multi-goal victory coming back on March 8th. Montreal should have enough in the tank to keep this one close, especially given its prior success in this matchup. With the added insurance of the puck line, backing the Habs at +1.5 makes sense in this spot.

Take Montreal +1.5 goals. Projected score: Florida 3, Montreal 2.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday.

The Clippers come into this matchup riding an impressive eight-game ATS winning streak and have started their four-game road trip with back-to-back victories. However, this game presents a challenging spot for them, as they face a Cleveland squad that will be eager to bounce back after consecutive ATS losses, including a disappointing outright defeat against lowly Detroit on Friday. The Cavaliers have likely had this rematch circled after falling 132-119 in an ‘upset’ loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles on March 18th. Given that previous result, expect a motivated effort from Cleveland at home.

Despite their recent struggles, the Cavaliers have been one of the tougher home teams in the league, and this is the ideal opportunity for them to get back on track. The Clippers’ winning streak has been impressive, but maintaining that level of play on the road against a well-rested Cleveland squad won’t be easy. Look for the Cavs to control the tempo, tighten up defensively, and respond with a strong effort to hand the Clippers a rare ATS setback.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cleveland 121, Los Angeles 108.

My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Cincinnati at 1:40 pm ET on Sunday.

Both teams have struggled offensively to open the season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA). That trend could continue in a game that features two quality starting pitchers and cool, damp conditions in Cincinnati, with winds projected to blow from right to left at Great American Ballpark. The Giants send Robbie Ray to the mound after an excellent Spring Training, where he posted a 1.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over 19 1/3 innings. While he made just seven starts for San Francisco last season, he has been effective against current Reds hitters, limiting them to a combined .235 batting average in a small sample.

Nick Martinez counters for Cincinnati after a strong 2024 season in which he recorded a 3.21 FIP and 1.02 WHIP over 42 appearances. He has had even more success against current Giants hitters, holding them to a mere .149 batting average and .492 OPS in 47 at-bats. Both bullpens are also in good shape entering the series finale, with only Giants reliever Randy Rodriguez likely unavailable. With the conditions favoring pitching and neither offense clicking early in the season, expect a lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: San Francisco 4, Cincinnati 2.

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 1:35 pm ET on Sunday.

The Phillies will be looking to complete the sweep in Washington, and with Aaron Nola on the mound, they’re in a strong position to do so. Nola is coming off another solid season, finishing 11th in N.L. Cy Young voting after recording a 3.94 FIP and 1.20 WHIP across 33 starts in 2024. He has also enjoyed success against the Nationals throughout his career, holding current Washington hitters to a combined .235 batting average and .610 OPS in 179 at-bats. Given that track record, Nola should be able to navigate this Washington lineup with relative ease.

On the other side, Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals after showing some promise during his rookie season with a 3.85 FIP and 1.31 WHIP. However, he struggled in limited action against the Phillies, with their hitters going 9-for-17 with two home runs against him. Philadelphia’s offense has been locked in to start the season, trailing only the Yankees in weighted on-base average (wOBA) through the first few games. With the Phillies swinging hot bats and holding a decisive edge in the pitching matchup, expect them to finish off the sweep with another convincing victory.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 6, Washington 3.

NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Auburn at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take the contrarian approach and fade Michigan State’s recent 'under' trend in this Elite Eight showdown. While the Spartans have seen three straight games fall below the total, opposing offenses have still found success, recording at least 23 made field goals in each of their last five contests. Michigan State’s defense hasn’t necessarily locked teams down, and now they face an Auburn squad that ranks third in the country in offensive rating. The Tigers have been ramping up their tempo throughout the tournament, attempting 60, 64, and 71 field goals in their three March Madness victories. With both teams sitting around the national average in pace—Michigan State ranking 179th in adjusted tempo and Auburn at 133rd (per KenPom)—there should be enough possessions to push this game toward a higher-scoring result.

Auburn benefited from Michigan’s poor shooting in the Sweet 16, but it would be unwise to expect a similar defensive effort against Michigan State, which has been consistently efficient offensively. The Spartans have made 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, proving their ability to score regardless of the opponent. Given Auburn's willingness to push the pace and Michigan State's steady offensive production, this game has all the makings of a higher-scoring battle.

Take the over. Projected score: Auburn 81, Michigan State 76.

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Atlanta over San Diego at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Braves will be eager to salvage the final game of this four-game set after three straight close losses to the Padres. Despite the results, the series has been highly competitive, with the last two games decided by just one run. San Diego's bullpen is in a tough spot after multiple high-leverage outings, with five different relievers having thrown at least 30 pitches over the past three days. That could be a problem considering Sunday's starter, Nick Pivetta, isn't typically known for going deep into games. While Pivetta has solid strikeout ability, Braves hitters have had success against him, combining for 11 home runs in past matchups.

A.J. Smith-Shawver gets the nod for Atlanta in his first start of the season after missing virtually all of 2024. While his rookie campaign in 2023 was inconsistent, he did show promise, particularly with his ability to limit baserunners (1.11 WHIP). The Braves won’t need him to go deep into this game, as their own bullpen is in better shape compared to San Diego’s. The ball has been carrying well at Petco Park this series, with six total home runs in three games, which should favor Atlanta’s powerful lineup. Expect the Braves to capitalize on their matchup against a depleted Padres pitching staff and avoid the sweep.

Take Atlanta. Projected score: Atlanta 6, San Diego 4.