Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

The Boston Celtics are averaging 113.3 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 107.3 points on 41.1 percent shooting. Jaylen Brown is averaging 26.8 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Derrick White is averaging 17 points and 3.8 rebounds. Anfernee Simons is the third double-digit scorer and Payton Pritchard is grabbing 5.2 rebounds. The Boston Celtics are shooting 32.8 percent from beyond the arc and 77.6 percent from the free throw line. The Boston Celtics are allowing 33.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game. Consider that the Celtics have won each of their last seven-night games against Western Conference opponents and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents. While the Rockets have lost 23 of their last 27 road games against Atlantic Division opponents and have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at TD Garden.

Rating: 2 Units

The timing of Anthony Edwards’ injury has been less than ideal for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are only 2-3 SU to start the season. They have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, 2 of which were against the Lakers. Now they have an early tip in Charlotte on today against a team that should be beatable on paper, but it will require a strong effort on offense to keep up with this high-paced opponent. With just 4 wins in 10 games and having covered the spread 3 times during that stretch, the Timberwolves haven’t had the best of times in head-to-head meetings. This team is yet to cover in 5 outings this season

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs bring a 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) log into this game while winning the stats by an average of +50 net yards per game. Meanwhile, the Hogs are 0-3 outright under interim head coach Bobby Petrino as his showcase debut fizzles. Finally consider that the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS this season and have gone 5-1 SUATS in the last six series get-togethers with the Hogs.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is 1-0 under their interim boss, the legend himself, Robb Akey, one of the true personalities in the game. OSU West is a rough on the eyes 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS as a home dog, while Wazzu’s best W of the season may be their September 6 triumph over Mountain West co-leader San Diego State. The Cougars are at least in the running for a bowl and must see this as a simple step towards the postseason. Plus, it’s a revenge game where Arizona was the favorite by double-digits and lost at home last year. That turned out to be Trent Bray’s final win in Corvallis, which explains why he’s watching this one from home.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be a great game between two evenly matched teams. The Stars look to pull off the upset but the Panthers look to rebound from a loss on their home ice and take over this game. The Panthers should create plenty of scoring chances with Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand controlling the puck in the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Panthers, who allow only 2.73 goals per game, should limit the Stars offense with Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to make plenty of big saves. The Panthers should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice.

Rating: 2 Units

Winnipeg comes into this matchup with the home ice advantage and they have won three of their last four games. The Jets are 4-3-0 at home this year, while the Penguins are 5-1-1 on the road. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses over their last five, but they are 3-0-2 in that span. The Penguins continue to play well and exceed expectations, as they are one of the highest scoring teams in the league. This should be a great game between two solid teams, but I have to take Pittsburgh at this price, as they continue to be undervalued.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Flyers here. I just haven’t liked what I’ve seen from the Maple Leafs on the road. They’re 0-3 away from Toronto this season and have allowed 4+ goals in all of those games and the Flyers are not a team you want to mess around with right now. The Flyers have been playing a lot better out of the gate than I probably would’ve given them credit for, and I think that they can take advantage of poor road form from Toronto here. Give me the Flyers.

Rating: 2 Units

Wake Forest, the first team to hand SMU an ACC loss this season, edging the Mustangs 13-12 last weekend. Wake is riding a four-game ATS and ITS (In The Stats) streak, but they are not impressing the oddsmakers. The Demon Deacons are 5-2/2-2, Florida State is 3-4/0-4, but the midweek odds showed FSU around an 8.5-point favorite. The Noles are 2-6 in this series ATS and keep making key mistakes at key times. Consider that after finishing 2023 unbeaten in the regular season, 9-0 in the ACC, the Seminoles have lost nine straight in conference play.

Rating: 2 Units

The 6-2 Warriors have evolved into one of the most dependable teams this season for all the right reasons. They now own the right to a bowl bid, and this “double” 17-returning starter squad will be out to avenge a 35-0 waxing at the hands of the Spartans in their last meeting in 2023. The 2-5 Spartans appear ready to snap a three year bowl streak, unless they win this game and two of their final four games. We don’t see that happening, though, not with Sparty conceding over 100 yards per game in overall defense. 

CFA Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The 7-0 / 5-0 Middies are one of only six undefeated FBS teams still alive this season, yet they failed to crack the AP Top 25. They own a one-game lead over second place 6-1 / 3-0 Tulane, with 7-1 / 3-1 North Texas breathing down their necks. Looking ahead, the Swabbies will take on Notre Dame, USF, and Memphis to close out the season, foes that are 17-5 collectively heading into this week. Despite scoring 32-plus points on SIX occasions this season, Navy will dress up as a dog for the first time in 2025. With that, consider undefeated Military teams are 28-10 ATS away against foes that allow 24-plus points per game, including 11-0 ATS when coming off a conference clash.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas looked awful for three quarters before a wild rally led to a happy trip from Stark Vegas to Austin; even the usually reliable Texas D struggled against the Bulldogs. Steve Sarkisian is 17-4 ATS after his team allowed 35 points in the previous game, but 9th-ranked Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or less. Our issue with the Commodores is they have been outgained in three of the last six games, which isn’t bad news if the game were in Nashville, but downright dangerous when they stride into Austin against a Texas squad 17-1 outright in its last 18 games. Consider that Playing On the AP Preseason Top Ranked team any time they face a foe with a better record if the foe won 7 or fewer games last season is 13-1 ATS.