Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

Idaho has lost each of its last five road day games against the Big West Conference. While Cal Poly has won four of its last five games against non-Conference opponents at Robert A. Mott Athletics Center and has won the first half in five of its last six games at Robert A. Mott Athletics Center.

Rating: 2 Units

Offensively, Morgan State averages 70.6 points per game, while allowing 83.2 points per game defensively. The Bears shoot with 42% from the field and grab 32.5 rebounds per game, while dishing out 12.2 assists per game. They average 2.6 blocks per game and 5.4 steals per game defensively.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s no secret that Gardner Webb isn’t a good team on either side of the ball, and it’s also just 2-9 ATS. You shouldn’t be making a habit of backing Gardner Webb. However, this is a ridiculous amount of points. It’s also a letdown spot for the Vols after playing Kansas, Syracuse, Illinois, and Louisville. You just don’t see these sorts of lines, and Tennessee was a favorite of 40 or more points once this season against North Florida, and it failed to cover the number. Even against the worse of the worst, you’re asking for a lot with this number, and the truth is Tennessee probably doesn’t care to embarrass its opponent. Gardner Webb didn’t do anything to Tennessee. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Each of Oklahoma State’s last 80 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 176 or fewer points. Ninety-seven of Cal State Fullerton’s last 105 games have produced a total of 174 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Terriers and the River Hawks combine to average 3.2 more points per game than the over/under of 148.5 set for this matchup. Boston University and UMass-Lowell have seen its opponents average a combined 6.4 more points per game than the point total of 148.5 set in this matchup.The average total for Boston University’s games this season is 0.7 more points than the total of 148.5 in this game. The average total for River Hawks games this season is 8.8 more points than the point total of 148.5 in this outing.

Rating: 2 Units

The New York Rangers could be without their leading goal scorer and leader in points, Artemi Panarin, who is listed as questionable, but did not play last against Vancouver, and since the Rangers will be playing a second game in as many nights, the coaching staff may play Panarin less if he can play at all. New York will also be without its leader in assists and second-leading points producer, Adam Fox, who has not played since late November. New York has lost five of its last seven games, and the Rangers are 5-12 in their last 17 games played in December. New York is struggling to put the puck in the net with a goals-for average for average 2.5, while Nashville’s is 2.8, and the Rangers, without Fox and possibly Panarin, will have a harder time scoring.

Rating: 2 Units

The Raptors have lost each of their last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing as favorites and have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Nets after losing as favorites. While the Nets have won each of their last two games as underdogs following a loss and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs have the ability to blow the doors off in this spot, but I have to question just how motivated they are to do so. The Spurs have had an emotional week and there’s a pair of games against the Thunder on deck. It’s very easy to overlook the Wizards. Yes, the Wizards are on the end of a back-to-back, but they just beat the Grizzlies outright as double-digit underdogs. Since November 25, the Wizards have 4 outright wins as double-digit underdogs. You can make money on the Wizards, as crazy as it seems. The Spurs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit favorite. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have the ability to take the Kings behind the woodshed, but with both teams on the end of a back-to-back, it’s the Kings that don’t have to travel. The Rockets are also in a letdown spot after beating the Nuggets. The Kings have covered their last two games, for whatever that’s worth. Look, I don’t want to get involved with the Kings as much as the next guy, but this is a lot of points for a Rockets team that’s playing a fourth straight road game. Give me the Kings and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills have won three of their last four and remain in the hunt for the AFC East title (trailing the Patriots but with games in hand). A win here could clinch a playoff spot; on the flip side, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention after a 31-3 blowout loss to the Bears last week. But stranger things have happened. Cleveland beat Green Bay here as a 7.5-point underdog in September, and they are 2-0 SUATS in games following the Bears. Given Buffy’s tendency to play down to the level of opposition (1-5 ATS versus .333 or fewer foes, and a 1-5 ATS mark as road favorites of 6 or more points when coming off a win), it’s clothespin time at the Dawg Pound today. Consider, playing on any NFL home dog from Game 14 onward with a .250 or fewer win percentage if they won four or fewer games last season and they are facing an opponent whose team Net YPR is 0 or less is 27-9 ATS this role since 1990. And if they are coming off a game in which they scored 10 or fewer points, they zoom up to 17-4 ATS. Finally, bring the same opponent in off a game in which they failed to win by 6 or more points and they improve to 11-0 ATS in this rare role.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel enters this game knowing he is 14-4-1 ATS in his career with the Dolphins against opponents coming off consecutive losses, including an 8-2 ATS record at home. That trend aligns well with the Bengals’ 2-12 ATS record in games where both teams are coming off SUATS losses. It might look tough, but backing the Tua-less Dolphins against the defensively challenged Bengals is a smart move, especially as the host in this series improves to 7-0 ATS. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

Lions’ QB Jared Goff is 14-3 ATS in his career after a loss when facing a team coming off a SUATS win, and the men from Detroit are 4-0 ATS against opponents coming off a Monday night home game. They’re also 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS when coming off their last 15 losses. And don’t worry about Aaron Rodgers’ connection to the Lions from his days with the Packers, where he is currently riding a 0-3 SUATS losing streak and is 0-2 SUATS all time as a dog.  Finally, Detroit HC responds with aplomb when his current team is coming off a loss and facing a foe coming off a win, going 11-0-1 ATS. 

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Broncos bring an 11-game win streak into this contest – nine of them one score victories – while the visiting Jaguars enter rising on a 5-game win streak, knowing NFL underdogs in this role are 15-5 ATS against foes coming off a win. Consider that NFL teams on an 11-game win streak (Broncos) are 5-9 SU and 1-12-1 ATS since 1990 when facing a non-division foe, including 0-7-1 ATS during the regular season... Additionally, teams are 1-12 ATS after facing the Jets this season, but 3-2 outright with a win percentage of .666 or more (Jags)

Rating: 3 Units

The self-induced coma that Tennessee plays under, coupled with the Titans’ 2-15 ATS record when coming off an away NFC opponent, prevents us from making a rash decision. Remember, Reid has a 26-9 ATS away record in his NFL career in games where his team is sporting a losing record. This is the fewest points that Tennessee has received the entire season, and the Chiefs are one of only THREE teams in the league that rank in the Top 10 in yardage on both sides of the ball, while Tennessee ranks in the Bottom 10. Finally, consider that New Chiefs QB Gardner Minshew is 4-0 SUATS on the road in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses.