Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 12/29:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks. Portland (13-19) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 114-108 upset victory at home against Boston as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing their previous game at home. Dallas (12-21) has lost four of their last five games after a 113-107 loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 7 games on the road this month. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Take Portland minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports was a WINNING 3-1 on Sunday in the NFL — headlined by EASILY DELIVERING their 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with the Chicago-San Francisco Over last night! Frank is on a 20 of 30 (67%) NFL TOTALS TEAR — and now he furthers his 5 of 7 (71%) NFL Total of the Year mark with tonight’s LA Rams-Atlanta O/U winner on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET for his 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, FOUND (!) HIS BROOM AGAIN last night — CA$HING WINNING TICKETS on San Francisco and the Bears-49ers Under — for his LUCKY 13TH NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEP this season! Frank is now on a 275 of 475 (58%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank has 33 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 55 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 75 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank furthers his 44 of 77 (57%) NFL sides run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with tonight’s LA Rams-Atlanta ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Monday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL! 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (432) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (431). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (6-9) has won two games in a row after their 26-19 victory at Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-4) had won two games in a row before their 38-37 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 2-point underdog on December 18th.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession this season. They are outgaining their opponents by +17.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are much closer to an 8-7/7-8 team than their 6-9 record suggests. They have a legitimate pass rush after striking gold in the NFL draft by grabbing pass rushers, James Pearce, Jr. and Jalon Walker, in the first round — they have combined for 14 sacks. The Falcons rank second in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins is very motivated to demonstrate to a national audience that he can still play at a high level and deserves to be signed to another contract. He has wide receiver Drake London back from injury as well. The Falcons are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles is dealing with several injuries on offense — and head coach Sean McVay may choose to be very cautious about using some of these players since they have been eliminated in the NFC West race, so they are destined to be on the road in two weeks as either the fifth or the sixth seed. Wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play due to his hamstring injury. The LA offensive line is also banged up. Right guard Kevin Dotson is out, and left tackle Alaric Jackson is questionable. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is on the injured list, and while he is trending to return soon, McVay may decide not to risk things this week. On defense, defensive end Braden Fiske is questionable with an ankle injury. Cornerback Josh Wallace is out with an ankle injury. As it is, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games when playing with extra rest since McVay became their head coach. And while they have outgained three straight opponents by at least +123 net yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 of their games on the road under McVay after outgaining two or more opponents in a row by at least +100 yards.  

FINAL TAKE: A couple of empirical NFL angles support the Falcons tonight. NFL home teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range who have won two of their last three games have covered the point spread in 28 of those last 36 (78%) situations. The Rams are outscoring their opponents by +15.6 Points-Per-Game — but NFL favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG have failed to cover the point spread in 96 of those last 152 (63%) circumstances. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Falcons (432) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (431). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (431) and the Atlanta Falcons (432). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-4) had won two games in a row before their 38-37 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 2-point underdog on December 18th. Atlanta (6-9) has won two games in a row after their 26-19 victory at Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams need to tighten things up on defense after blowing a 16-point lead against the Seahawks and surrendering 415 yards of offense. Los Angeles still has a very good defense that ranks third in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are only giving up 327.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.9 Points-Per-Game. The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss since Sean McVay took over as their head coach — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a fellow NFC West rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after giving up 30 or more points in their last contest. Los Angeles is dealing with several injuries on offense — and McVay may choose to be very cautious about using some of these players since they have been eliminated in the NFC West race, so they are destined to be on the road in two weeks as either the fifth or the sixth seed. Wide receiver Davante Adams is doubtful to play with his hamstring injury. The LA offensive line is also banged up. Right guard Kevin Dotson is out, and left tackle Alaric Jackson is questionable. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is on the injured list, and while he is trending to return soon, McVay may decide not to risk things this week. A run-heavy approach may be prudent since it will also help to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total under McVay. They have also played 34 of their 51 games Under the Total in the McVay era, including 11 of those last 16 contests. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last game. And while the Falcons have covered the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two games in a row. Atlanta has a legitimate pass rush after striking gold in the NFL draft by grabbing pass rushers James Pearce, Jr. and Jalon Walker in the first round — they have combined for 14 sacks. The Falcons rank second in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate. On the other side of the ball, I remain skeptical about quarterback Kirk Cousins despite his recent success. Three of his last five games have come against teams in the bottom-nine in the league in points allowed. Against Seattle three weeks ago, he completed only 15 of 30 passes for 154 yards in a game where Atlanta scored only nine points. Cousins punishes defenses that blitz him since he can find open receivers and get the ball out quickly. The Rams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to blitz rate — and they can generate pressure without relying on extra pass rushers. The Falcons have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total played in prime-time. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total played in prime-time, including 9 of their last 13 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (431) and the Atlanta Falcons (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.