Frank Sawyer

At 6:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (918) versus the Cleveland Guardians (917) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Gavin Williams. THE SITUATION: Detroit (85-66) has lost four of their last five games after their 7-5 loss against the Guardians on Tuesday. Cleveland (79-71) has won five straight games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit should bounce back tonight since they have won 37 of their last 64 games after losing their previous contest, including 18 of those 30 games played at home. They have also won 12 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss to a fellow AL East rival, including seven of those 10 games played at home. The Tigers have still won 46 of their 75 games at home this season. Flaherty gets the ball, looking to build on his 8-13 record along with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be getting better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.64 and 3.68, respectively, moving forward. He has been more effective at home, where he owns a 4.31 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 16 starts as opposed to his 5.26 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in 13 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Guardians team that ranks 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they drop to 29th in both those categories since June 1st. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset victory against a division rival. The Guardians have still lost 8 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also lost 21 of their last 35 games against opponents that are winning 54-62% of their games. Williams gets the ball, carrying a 10-5 record along with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging, as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.55 and 4.27 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 4.39. The right-hander has been more effective at home, where he owns a 3.00 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in 15 starts — but in his 14 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.33 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220. 

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers rank 12th and 11th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rise to seventh in both those categories since June 1st. 10* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (918) versus the Cleveland Guardians (917) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Gavin Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.