Frank Sawyer

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (28-9) has won 16 of their last 17 games after their 80-73 upset victory against Loyola-Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the NIT on Tuesday. UC-Irvine (32-6) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 69-67 upset victory against North Texas a 1-point underdog in their semifinal match in this tournament on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Anteaters made 49.0% of their shots in their upset victory against the Mean Green which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. UC-Irvine ranks just 169th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and they are making only 45.4% of their shots on the season. The Anteaters have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 14 of their last 21 games on the road Under the Total against teams outside the Big West Conference. They are holding their opponents to -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road which is the 46th biggest drop off in the nation. In their six games played on a neutral court, they are holding their opponents to -6.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the 12th biggest drop in the nation. Led by 7’1 rim protector Bent Leuchten, UC-Irvine ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 14th in that metric when playing on the road. The Anteaters thrive with their half-court defense by ranking seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and they rank second in the nation by holding their opponents to a 42.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. This contest will be strength-versus-strength since Chattanooga is an outstanding pure-shooting defense that ranks 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% — and they rank ninth in the nation with a 57.9% mark inside the arc. Leuchten’s presence down low should frustrate much of what the Mocs want to do on offense. Chattanooga’s scoring attack is led by two small guards, Trey Bonham and Honor Hoff, who draw out defenders because they shoot a ton of 3s. This opens up space for Bash Wieland to freely slash to the basket — but Leuchten will be waiting for him tonight. The Mocs rank 44th in the nation by making 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark drops to 34.9% when they are on the road which ranks 92nd in the nation. Chattanooga ranks 54th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do score -5.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 73rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and their net drop off in offensive efficiency is the 291st worst in the nation. But the Mocs so play better defense on the road. They rank 262nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall — but they improve to 154th in that category on the road by surrendering -11.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the fifth-best improvement in the nation. The Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +9.2 Points-Per-Game — and Chattanooga has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games in tournament settings Under the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes, which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification for the Masters at Augusta National next week.

LONG SHOT: Bud Cauley (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cauley (7016) versus J.T. Poston (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:43 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Bud Cauley who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Cauley is in his second year back on the PGA Tour after a terrible car crash in the fall of 2020 that derailed his career for three years. But the 35-year-old is in fantastic form right now after following up a tie for 6th place at THE PLAYERS Championship with a 4th place two weeks ago at the Valspar Challenge. Cauley gained +8.1 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green and another +1.9 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee at the Valspar Challenge. He has gained strokes versus the field in four straight events in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. For the 2025 season, he ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total with solid metrics in all four of the major categories. He ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 35th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 4th in Sand Save Percentage which will be particularly important this week. He ranks 4th in the field this week in Scrambling. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Opportunities Gained — and he is the only pro ranking in the top 30 in that category on the tour who also ranks in the top 10 in Shots-Gained: Putting inside of 15 feet. His tight draw Off-the-Tee should help him attack the pin this week — and he has made the cut in four of his six previous trips here headlined by a tie for 10th place and a tie for 18th place.

Cauley is linked with J.T. Poston in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Poston comes off a tie for 28th place at the Valspar Challenge two weeks ago in what has been an underwhelming campaign so far this season. His best finish was a tie for 12th place at the American Express and then a tie for 16th place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Poston ranks 50th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — but he drops to 91st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has struggled with his short game this season. He ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranks 131st in Sand Save Percentage which is not a good sign for this course. He has made the cut in all four of his previous trips to TPS San Antonio but he has never finished better than his 27th finish in 2017. Take Cauley (7016) versus Poston (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are of 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on the three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keegan Bradley (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bradley (7137) versus Maverick McNealy (7138) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:03 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keegan Bradley who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament. Bradley is in great form — and the Ryder Cup captain in the fall has the extra motivation to register some victories on the tour to justify his spot as one of the competitors on that team. He comes off a tie for 20th place at THE PLAYERS Championship, which is his fifth top 20 result while making the cut in all seven of his events in 2025. He finished in a tie for 6th place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January and then finished tied for 5th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month. He ranks 24th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season which is the sixth-highest mark in the field this week. He has gained 15 strokes versus the field in this category in his last three tournaments. He has also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in three straight events. He ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total which plays better this week with many of the top pros taking the week off before the Masters next week. He ranks 11th in the field this week in Scrambling from the Sand. He also ranks 12th in the field in Par 4 Scoring. He has a good track record playing in Texas which includes a second place at the Colonial as well as making the cut in five of his six trips to this tournament which include a tie for 8th place and a tie for 9th place.

Bradley is linked with Maverick McNealy in Round One head-to-head props. McNealy finished in second place at the Genesis Invitational last month — but he has since missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship in his next two tournaments before finishing in 30th place last week at the PGA Texas Children’s Houston Open. This course is not a great fit for his skill set. McNealy ranks 75th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 142nd in Sand Save Percentage so he may get into trouble with the 64 sand bunkers. He has made the cut in both of his previous professional trips to TPC San Antonio but he has not finished better than 35th place in 2022. McNealy also ranks just 94th on the tour in Round One Scoring. Take Bradley (7137) versus McNealy (7138) in Round One head-to-props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes, which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification for the Masters at Augusta National next week.

BEST BET: Corey Conners (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7142) versus Ludvig Aberg (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:14 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Valero Texas Open is on Corey Conners who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Conners combine great recent form along with the Horse for the Course resume this week. He has finished in the top eight in three straight PGA events with a 3rd place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational followed up by a tie for 6th place at THE PLAYERS Championship, and then a tie for eighth place two weeks ago at the Valspar Challenge. Overall, Conners has made the cut in seven of his eight PGA events in 2025 with four top-eight finishes. He ranks 20th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, with many of the professionals ahead of him taking this week off before the Masters next week. He also ranks 21st in Driving Accuracy — and this helps him rank 18th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. Conners also leads the tour in Scrambling within 30 yards — so he is well-versed in getting up-and-down if he does miss the green. He won this event in 2019 and followed that up with another title in 2023, amongst four top 25s overall at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio.

Conners is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Round One head-to-head props. I am very bullish on Aberg in the long run — and he rewarded our faith by winning the PGA Genesis Invitational earlier this year. But he has not been in great form since that triumph. He missed the cut in his last start at THE PLAYERS Championship. He has not finished better than a tie for 22nd place in four of his last five PGA events. His ball-striking has been off. He has lost more than 2.0 strokes versus in Approach-the-Green in three of his last four tournaments — and he has lost strokes in two straight events in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Aberg ranks 99th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is very good at dealing with sand bunkers, but he can get in trouble when he misses the green as he ranks 142nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. His chipping is a weakness as he ranks 131st in Scrambling, which is not a good sign given his current form with his horns. He did finish in a tie for 14th place in his professional debut here last year — but he still lacks the course experience that Conners will enjoy on Thursday. Take Conners (7142) versus Aberg (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.