Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 11/25:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with Oregon minus the points versus San Diego State. Oregon (4-1) lost their first game of the season last night in an 84-73 loss to Auburn a a 4-point underdog at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas in the Players Era Festival. The Ducks have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home against teams outside the Big Ten. This game will also be played at Michelob Ultra Arena in this multiple-team event — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court. San Diego State (2-2) lost their opening game in this event last night in a 94-54 loss to Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog of up to six points on a neutral court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 140s. Take Oregon minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on an 18 of 24 (75%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays despite going winless for Monday Night Football in that dismal game to continue an 80 of 122 (66%) All-Sports featured plays winning streak! Frank BOUNCES BACK TONIGHT in college basketball where he is on a 12 of 15 (80%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured plays — and now he furthers his 33 of 45 (73%) CBB Totals mark with featured plays with his 25* College Basketball Total of the Month for Tuesday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (675) and the San Diego State Aztecs (676) in the Players Era Festival. THE SITUATION: Oregon (4-1) lost their first game of the season last night in an 84-73 loss against Auburn in their opening game in the Players Era Festival. San Diego State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 94-54 loss to Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog in their first game in this multiple-team event. This game is being played on a neutral court at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Oregon only made 37.7% of their shots last night against the Tigers — and they have two games where they shot even worse than that clip already this season. Head coach Dana Altman’s group is not a good shooting basketball team. Their effective field goal percentage of 47.4% ranks 271st in the nation. The Ducks rank just 91st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency -- and it is not like they have played a difficult schedule. In terms of defenses, they have played the 195th most difficult schedule according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. They are also turning the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, which ranks 283rd in the nation. The one thing that Oregon does well on the offensive end of the court is create second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank 23rd in the nation by pulling down 39.7% of their missed shots. Good offensive rebounding teams help Unders since these teams tend to have longer possessions before finally scoring or giving the ball back to their opponent. On the other end of the court, the Ducks played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing Auburn to make 46.2% of their shots and score 84 points. Oregon ranks 39th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. The Ducks have played three straight Overs — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total since the beginning of last season when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court. San Diego State also played their worst defensive game of the season last night by allowing the Wolverines to nail 50% of their shots and score 94 points. The Aztecs should play better on that end of the court tonight — they rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the Ducks are going to extend their possessions often tonight since San Diego State allows their opponents to rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 293rd in the nation. The Aztecs should also be disruptive as they force turnovers in 22.1% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 35th in the nation. Head coach Brian Dutcher’s team also does a good job of making it difficult on their opponents when playing half-court defense, as they rank 282nd in the nation, with their opponents averaging 17.7 seconds per possession. San Diego State only made 27.4% of their shots last night. They rank 82nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are only making 46.4% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 292nd in the nation. The Aztecs do nail 38.4% of their 3-pointers — but Oregon has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who make 37% or more of their 3s. The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to make more than 33% of their shots. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. And while the Ducks are outrebounding their opponents by +8.2 Rebounds-Per-Game, San Diego State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a +4.0 or more RPG. The Aztecs are also too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 21.5% of their possessions, ranking 321st in the nation. San Diego State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em. 

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a fast pace. The national average is 70 possessions per game. The Aztecs’ games average 69.6 possessions per game, and the Ducks average 70.2 possessions per game. San Diego State has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Oregon has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (675) and the San Diego State Aztecs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.