Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 3/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Portland Trail Blazers plus the points versus the New York Knicks. Portland (32-42) has lost three games in a row after their 128-107 loss at Sacramento as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Trail Blazers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road against Eastern Conference opponents. New York (46-27) has won three of their last four games after their 116-107 upset victory at Milwaukee as a 1-point underdog on Friday. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games. Take Portland plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 9 of 10 (90%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays which fuels their 30 of 40 (75%) CBB Totals mark with featured plays! Frank DELIVERED his 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year on Duke last night to fuel his 12 of 18 (67%) CBB Game of the Year run — and now he furthers his 22 of 29 (76%) CBB Totals Game of the Year/Month run with his 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year for Sunday!

Frank is on a 17 of 25 (68%) NCAA Tournament run with featured plays  — and he furthers his 12 of 18 (67%) CBB Game of the Year run with his 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year for Sunday that will no longer be available — one way or another — by 2:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan State (306) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 73-70 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Auburn (31-5) has won four of their last five games after their 78-65 victory against Michigan as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State found a way to rally to beat the Rebels on Friday despite losing the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin. The Spartans only pulled down five offensive rebounds which is unheard of for a Tom Izzo team. Izzo dialed up a great offensive game plan against head coach Chris Beard’s “no-middle” defense. Sparty shot 50% from the field including making 18 of their 31 shots (58.1%) inside the arc. They also made a living at the free throw line by getting to the charity stripe 22 times and making 19 of those shots. It was also very encouraging to see freshman phenom Jase Richardson score 20 points and make 4 of his 6 shots from behind the arc. He struggled in the previous round against New Mexico by scoring only 6 points. Richardson is Michigan State’s best 3-point shooter with his 42.0% shooting clip — and he jumpstarted their scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup midway through the Big Ten season. If this team can make more than 33% of their 3s, they become very tough to beat given all the other things they do well. The Spartans rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking 28th by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots and ranking eighth by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.6% of their misses. Their physical style of play on both ends of the court helps them get to the free throw line — they rank 42nd in free throw rate. Furthermore, they rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.0% shooting from behind the arc. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win including 10 of those 15 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. And while the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG including eight of those 11 games played on the road. Auburn continues to show some cracks in their armor against good teams in their victory against the Wolverines. They trailed by a 48-39 score with 12:26 left in the second half before going on a 39-17 run to win (and cover the spread). Maybe that means the Tigers are “back” — but it said more about that Michigan team who melted in those final 12 minutes. Take away Danny Wolf’s 9 of 18 shooting — and the other Wolverines only made 12 of 41 shots (29.2%). If you watched the game, then you know it was not defense prowess from Auburn as much ugly execution in what was sloppy play by both teams. The Tigers trailed Creighton at halftime in their previous game before getting it together in the second half — but teams that continue to live dangerously after sluggish starts tend to get burned. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 second-chance Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this Auburn defense that surrenders +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 321st-worst drop-off in the nation. They ranked 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc before Michigan went 16 of 42 (38.1%) with their 2-pointers. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 164th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.5% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 games when a four-seed or better including five of those eight games since taking over Auburn. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this month.

FINAL TAKE: Matchups make fights — and Michigan State’s three best offensive strengths with rebounding, inside shooting, and getting to the free throw line are their three biggest defensive liabilities for Auburn. The Spartans outrebound their opponents by +9.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 18 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (30-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 78-65 victory against Kentucky as a 4.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Houston (33-4) rides a 16-game winning streak after their 62-60 victory against Purdue as an 8-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tennessee allowed the Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in that game which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee is once again an elite defensive team that ranks third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They present a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they lead the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. That mark does decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers have an elite perimeter defense that ranks second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranks 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Boilermakers. That effort continues a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts may not be close to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They remain the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They are holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee has only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also has an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play (more on that below). The Volunteers rank 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number does speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stop the opponent’s offensive rebounding. but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston has played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they have played 13 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. But the money stat regards their opponent’s average length of possession since it tends to reflect their opponent’s frustration for settling for a bad shot. The Volunteers and Cougars rank 351st and 354th with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.