Frank Sawyer

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Paris Saint-Germain (238042) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (238041) in the quarterfinals of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain (W3-D0-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 4-0 victory against Inter Miami last Sunday. Bayern Munich (W3-D0-L1) joined them in the quarterfinals with a 4-2 victory against Flamengo on Sunday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: PSG has now won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions after a ruthless first half against Lionel Messi and company as all four of those goals were scored in the opening 45 minutes to completely put that match away. The blowout allowed manager Luis Enrique to rest some of his key players in the second half to help manage their fitness for this contest. Ballon d’Or contender Ousmane Dembele also made his debut in this tournament by playing 30 minutes in the second half. I have been cautious in getting too financially involved early in this event because I was unsure about how motivated some clubs would be — especially the European teams technically in their offseason. But now that the championship is much closer, I expect the club that recently crushed Inter Milan by a 5-0 score to win the UEFA Champions League to display their A-Game as they did against Inter Miami last week. Les Bleus’ lone loss in their last nine matches was their second group stage match against Botafogo by a 1-0 score despite holding them to just 0.28 expected Goals (xG). They only had 1.01 xG in that match — but they have generated at least 2.02 xG in each of their other three matches. With three clean sheets, PSG has only surrendered one goal in their four matches which is the lowest in this tournament. They led the group stage with a possession rate of 73.4%, 11.3 passes per possession, 104.3 progressive passes gained overall, and just 6.9 passes allowed per defensive action. The biggest development this season has been the emergence of striker Dembele who has shined in the role of replacing Kylian Mbappe who signed with Real Madrid last summer. His improved finishing skills make him one of the best players in the world — and he is on the shortlist to win the Ballon d’Or awarded to the player who enjoyed the best season in all of soccer. The roster was talented and balanced — and keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Achraf Hakimi may very well be the best players in the world at their position. Adding Khuicha Kuaratskhelia in the January transfer from Napoli was a shot in the arm for the scoring attack. Overall, the unity and cohesion of this team are better than the ones they had when Mbappe was the clear superstar and Talisman. The squad also had depth. PSG has a situational edge in this matchup having been able to stay in Atlanta all week after their Round of 16 match against Inter Milan was also at the indoor (and air-conditioned) Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Bayern Munich has had to travel for each of their matches. Their overall numbers in this tournament are propped up by their 10-0 thrashing of Auckland City (the only amateur team in the competition) in their opening match. Their loss to Benfica in their third match was frustrating for manager Vincent Company since he resorted to playing several of his normal starters in the second half that he was trying to give them the match off. The Bavarians lost the xG battle by a 1.60 to 1.08 margin in their victory against Flamengo. They have allowed three of their four opponents to score which continues to expose their vulnerabilities on defense. Their aggressive high-risk approach to ball domination leaves them open to too many defensive breakdowns. In their six losses or draws in the Championship League this year, they allowed as many high-quality shots of +0.2 or higher xG as they generated themselves. PSG is not a good matchup for them since the Parisiens are so technically proficient and have so much speed. Botafogo’s defensive counter-attacking approach can be a thorn in PSG’s side. Opponents that are direct allow them to play coy and take advantage of mistakes in the counter-attack. Bayern Munich lacks that same level of tactical flexibility. The Bavarians are not at full strength either. Star midfielder Alphonso Davies is out with an injury — and he is one of their few players who can match the top speed in the PGS starting XI. Company is also without defensemen Hiroki Ito and Kim Min-Jae.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has won the last four meetings between these two teams — including a 1-0 victory against Les Bleus in the league stage of the Champions League in November. But that was before PSG started to thrive in Enrique’s system — and before they added Kvaratskhelia in the transfer portal. Thoroughly dominating Inter Milan is a testament to just how much this group improved during what looked like a lost season late in the Fall. The Nerazzurri have proven themselves to be one of the best clubs in Europe after reaching the UEFA Champions League final two years ago in a loss to Manchester City. They outlasted an excellent Barcelona squad in the semifinals by an aggregate 7-6 score after surviving what might have been the match of the year in the second leg in a 4-3 victory in extra time. PSG won the expected goals battle against Inter Milan by a 3.51-0.50 margin. Les Parisiens concluded their season with five clean sheets in their final nine matches in the UEFA Champions League. They also pulled off the rare treble by winning the Champions League, the Ligue 1 title, and the Coupe de France after a 3-0 victory against Reims on May 24th. They are in sight of adding a fourth major title in what has become a magical season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Paris Saint-Germain (238042) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (238041). Best of luck for us — Frank.