Frank Sawyer

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Frisco Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (199) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (200). THE SITUATION: Memphis (10-2) has won three straight games and seven of their last eight contests after their 34-24 upset victory at Tulane as a 12.5-point underdog on November 28th. West Virginia (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 52-15 loss at Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers generated 454 yards of offense against what had been a pretty good Green Wave defense. Led by senior quarterback Seth Henigan playing in his last game for Memphis tonight, the offense should light up a vulnerable Mountaineers defense. They have scored at least 33 points eight times this season. The Tigers have played 11 straight games Over the Total after beating a conference rival in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Overs after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored. West Virginia will be playing for offensive coordinator Chad Scott who was tapped as the interim head coach for this game after Neal Brown was fired after their embarrassing loss at Texas Tech. The Mountaineers’ players should be motivated to play well as their first opportunity to audition for Rich Rodriguez who was hired to return to the program as their head coach. The offense should be fine — they gained 423 yards against the Red Raiders but were held back by a -2 net turnover margin. They had scored 31 or more points in four straight contests before that game — and they have scored 31 or more points eight times this season. Garrett Greene is a senior dual-threat quarterback who put up better numbers last season — but he can still operate a competent offense. What got Brown fired was the play of their defense that ranked 133rd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. Overall, they surrendered 410.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 31.1 Points-Per-Game. That unit will be far from full strength with many of their players expected to opt out of this game before kick-off as they enter the transfer portal. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has a dynamic Thunder and Lightning duo at running back with C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White — they generate 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry as a team. Memphis has played 7 straight games Over the Total against teams who average 4.75 or more YPC. 8* CFB Memphis-West Virginia Frisco Bowl ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the Frisco Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (199) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539) in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting — but that was their best defensive effort in their last eight contests. Milwaukee is playing better basketball lately — and getting Kris Middleton back from injury certainly helps. They are better than their 13th ranking with an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +1.7. But even in their recent 12-game run, they only rise to tenth in the league with an Adjusted Net Efficiency of +5.0. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 210s. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City is holding their opponents to just 103.5 Points-Per-Game — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams who are not allowing more than 108 PPG. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. They are also 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams from the Eastern Conference. And in their last 6 games in December, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests.  

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG this season — and the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are getting outscored by +3.0 or more PPG. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Oklahoma City ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma City Thunder (540) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 12/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with West Virginia plus the points versus Memphis in the Frisco Bowl. West Virginia (6-6) will be playing for offensive coordinator Chad Scott who was tapped as the interim head coach for this game after Neal Brown was fired after their 52-15 loss at Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog on November 30th. The Mountaineers’ players should be motivated to play well as their first opportunity to audition for Rich Rodriguez who was hired to return to the program as their head coach. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Memphis (10-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 34-24 win at Tulane as a 12.5-point underdog on November 28th. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating an American Athletic Conference rival in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Take West Virginia plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 22 of 35 (63%) All-Sports run after DELIVERING their 25* NFC North Total of the Month with the Chicago-Minnesota Under last night! Frank is on a 58 of 90 (64%) NBA TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and now he furthers his 12 of 14 (86%) NBA Game of the Month/Year Totals run with his 25* NBA Cup Total of the Year for tonight’s Milwaukee-Oklahoma City O/U winner on ABC-TV at 8:30 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank is on a 16 of 23 (70%) College Football run after CA$HING his 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year on Clemson in the ACC Championship Game two Saturdays ago! Now KICKS OFF his College Football Bowl season by furthering his 19 of 28 (68%) College Football run with tonight’s Memphis-West Virginia O/U winner on ESPN at 9:00 PM ET in Frisco Bowl! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting. Head coach Doc Rivers has this group playing better on the defensive end of the court. While they rank 13th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to eighth in the league in that metric over their last 15 games. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, they will have a size edge in this contest. With $500K on the line in a game that will not count in the regular season standings, look for another strong effort on defense from this team. It is telling that Milwaukee had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total away from home against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City wants to make this a track meet and generate scoring opportunities in transition — but they are not very efficient in those situations as they rank just 23rd in effective Field Goal percentage (eFG). Rivers knows this and will have his team focus on protecting the basketball and making this a half-court game. The Thunder rank just 14th in eFG when playing in the half-court. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. This is their third game since December 8h — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home. And in their last 8 games as an underdog or a favorite of up to 5.5 points, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: In the knockout games in the NBA Cup this season, the average combined score has been only 208.9 points — and all five games played on a neutral court in Las Vegas in the Semifinals or Finals of this tournament going back to last year have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.