Dan Kaiser

The Ottawa Senators have won seven of the last ten against the Pittsburgh Penguins including six straight with three of those coming in Pittsburgh. They picked up a t5[-0 win over the Penguins back in January. The Penguins have allowed 17 goals in the last three games. The Senators allow only 2.87 goals per game. The Senators average only 2.92 goals per game while the Penguins average 2.92 goals per game. Ottawa is looking to secure a playoff spot and I like them to continue their dominance over Pittsburgh in this one.

Play on Ottawa. This is a 3% play.

Aaron Nola goes for the Phillies. He made 33 starts last season, tossing 199.1 innings and posting a 3.57 ERA. with a 1.20 WHIP. During Spring he posted a 1.84 ERA in 14.2 innings pitched. Mitchell Parker made 29 starts as a rookie with a 7-10 record, a 4.29 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He had a 3.65 ERA this spring. Aaron Nola dominated the Nationals last season,allowing  five earned runs in 24.1 innings picking up three wins in four starts. Mitchell Parker faced the Phillies once in his rookie season and it did not go well/ He lasted just three innings and allowed nine runs, The Phillies have outscored the Nats 18[-9 in this series and expect more of the same. If the Phillies don’t get to Parker they will get to the nats woeful bullpen. 

Play on Philadelphia. This is a 3% play.

The Atlanta Braves have gotten off to a rocky start, dropping their first three games. They will look to pick up a win by sending rookie AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound. This spring he posted a 3.94 ERA in 16.0 innings of work. San Diego will go for a four[-game sweep by sending Nick Pivetta to the mound. He went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 13.1 innings during Spring Training. The Braves has struggled at the plate so far, averaging 2.3 runs per game. The Padres are putting up 4 runs a game so far this season. Pivetta faced the Braves twice last season when he pitched for Boston. He went 1-1 and gave up five runs on eight hits in 11.0 innings with 10 strikeouts. The Padres have an edge on the mound and a definite edge at the plate so far this season. The Padres have shown the ability to run against the Braves and even though it is a difficult task, I like the Braves to complete the four game sweep.

Play on San Diego. This is a 2% play

Milwaukee will look to avoid a sweep after getting pummeled 20-9 yesterday. The Brewers will send Aaron Civale to the mound. He made 31 starts last season posting a 4.36 ERA. He was traded mid-season to the Brewers and went 6-3 with an ERA of 3.53 and a 1.22 WHIP. Aaron Judge had three home runs and 8 RBI’s yesterday. As a team, they hit 9 home runs yesterday alone. Marcus Stroman will try and pick up the sweep. He was projected to be in the bullpen but injuries to Cole and others have moved him into the starting rotation. He went 10-9 in 23 starts last year with a 4.31 ERA of 4.31.The Yankees have scored 15 runs in their last three games against Chivale. The Brewers have struggled against Stroman, who gave up 10 runs in his last five starts against them. 

Play on the Yankees. This is a 3% play

This is an interesting matchup. Auburn has played the second[-toughest schedule and finished at 31-5 on the season. The Tigers have won 27 of those 31 games by 5+ points, while posting an average margin of victory of +14.3 points. Michigan State does not shoot well from deep, ranking 318th in the nation at 31.1%. Auburn’s defense is the seventh-best defensive three-point team. If I knew MSU would make some threes I would take the points, MSU has not played well in the first half of games and if they get behind early and can’t make the deep ball, this game could get ugly. 

Play on Auburn. This is a free play.

Both teams are top 10 in defense. Michigan State is fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency while  Auburn is eighth. Both teams  rank 12th or better in effective field goal rate on the defensive side. On the offensive side, they each rank 134th or lower in adjusted tempo. Both teams like to play physical and as long as the refs allow them to play that way, I see very tough defensive game without a lot of scoring. 

Play on the UNDER, This is a  play 3%

Houston has the best defense in the country and Tennessee is not too far behind at third. Offensively, both teams like to play at a snails pace. Houston is 360th in adjusted tempo, using only 61.6 possessions per 40 minutes. Tennessee is 349th with 63.7 possessions per 40 minutes. If you like 70’s and 80’s basketball then this game is for you, They should play first one to y60 wins and the may take longer than 40 minutes.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play.

I leaned to Houston when the line opened at -4.5, money has come pouring in and you can get Houston at a possession at -3. I can’t pass on the Cougars at this number The Cougars. Have won 16 straight games, with 15 of those victories coming by 4 or more points. Houston is the best team in the country at shooting from deep, hitting 39.8 from behind the arc. ir triples at a decent clip, they should win this game. These two teams pretty much mirror each other but Houston is just a bigger, better version of Tennessee. You can’t overlook the coaching matchup either, Sampson is a better coach then Barnes and you just can’t trust Barnes in these situations.

Play on Houston on the moneyline. This is a 5% play.