It’s a new week as the NBA season nears the much anticipated playoffs in April.
The matchups from here on out should be interesting as teams fight for playoff positioning or tank for the draft.
Monday offers a solid card with betting opportunities on the board.
Listed below are featured NBA picks, predictions and analysis for March 4th, 2019 from our expert handicappers.
Click on a handicapper’s name for more of their NBA plays, subscriptions, season packages and records.
Jimmy Boyd
Dallas Mavs @ Brooklyn Nets
Monday, Mar 4 ’19, 7:35 PM ET
Brooklyn and Dallas should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. Both teams are coming off horrible offensive showings, which is definitely playing into the value with the total.
The Nets scored just 88 points in a blowout loss at Miami on Saturday, as they just didn’t show up in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Dallas only managed 81 points at home against the Grizzlies in their last game, as they shot a miserable 26 of 85 (30%) from the field.
Not only are both of these teams better than what the showed offensively, both offenses will be aided by the sub-par defenses they will be facing.
The Mavs are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road and the Nets are allowing 113.4 ppg at home. These two combine for 132 in their previous meeting this season back in November.
OVER is 11-2 in the Mavs last 13 road games when they come in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record.
OVER is also 21-8 in Brooklyn’s last 29 off a game where they went UNDER the total and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER!
Pick: OVER 224.5 (-110)
Matt Fargo
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
Monday, Mar 4 ’19, 8:35 PM ET
Denver remains a legitimate threat to Golden St. in the Western Conference despite a pair of home losses in its last two games. Most recent, the Nuggets are coming off a loss to New Orleans and Saturday marked the first time since Oct. 20 that the Nuggets’ intended starting five of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Millsap all started a game together. The chemistry was there as they built a 19-point lead but allowed runs of 14-2 and 9-0 in the second half.
The Nuggets trail the Warriors by just a game and a half and while they are not nearly as good on the road as at home, this is a prime contrarian spot. Adding to that is the fact San Antonio has won two straight games, both at home, following a dread roadtrip where they went 1-7.
The home/road splits are considerable for the Spurs and they are getting a majority of the action with the short price. They are three games ahead of Sacramento for the eighth spot in the Western Conference but going back, the Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning straight up record.
Pick: Nuggets +1 (-103) at Pinnacle
Dave Price
Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns
Monday, Mar 4 ’19, 9:05 PM ET
The Suns have shown some fight here of late. They have won 2 of their last 3 in upset fashion with a win as 7.5-point road dogs over the Heat and a win as 7-point home dogs over the Lakers.
They have been motivated when they’ve played playoff-caliber teams and now they welcome the Bucks tonight. This is a Bucks team that is tired playing its 3rd road game in 4 days.
Phoenix actually upset Milwaukee 116-114 as 13.5-point road dogs in their 1st meeting this season.
Each of the last 4 meetings have gone down to the wire as they’ve all been decided by 6 points or less. I think this game will be closer than the books anticipate as well.
Pick: Suns +13.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Rob Vinciletti
NY Knicks @ Sacramento Kings
Monday, Mar 4 ’19, 10:05 PM ET
The NBA Comp play is on Sacramento at 10:05 eastern.
The Kings are a solid play here as they have covered 12 of 15 as a home favorite and 5-0 to the spread if the opponent has no rest. The Kings have covered 25 of 33 vs East Conf.teams.
NY comes in with no rest and have failed to cover 7 of 9 as a road dog with no rest off a road game and 6 of 7 vs Pacific division teams.
To tie in a nice 80% system from the database we see that non conference road dogs with no rest and a 210 or higher total are covering just 20% since 1995 vs a team that failed to cover as a home favorite of 4 or less like the Kings.
Look for the Sacramento to coast past a tired Knicks team.
Pick: Kings -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline
For all plays and predictions with analysis for Monday, visit the free NBA picks section and expert NBA picks page.
