Jack Jones

20* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

These are two of the best lineups in baseball.  This total is too low in a game between these two lineups.  That's especially the case with the forecast looking good in Los Angeles with temps in the 60's and light winds blowing out to center.

Matt Boyd is getting too much respect for his start to the season.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto consistently gets too much respect when he takes the mound for the Dodgers.  This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to fade them both.

The Cubs are scoring 6.4 runs per game this season while the Dodgers are scoring 4.9 runs per game.  Both offenses will have more success than this total of 7.5 indicates.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Mets/A's Interleague Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

The Oakland A's play at their temporary home of Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.  This is the home of the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats.  While the Coliseum was a pitcher's park, Sutter Health Park is much more of a hitter's park with much less foul territory.

The A's are 5-1 OVER in their six home games combining with the Cubs for 19, 11 and 12 runs, and then combining with the Padres for 9 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2. They finally went under the total in Game 3 for their lone under.

I expect the runs to be plentiful tonight with the forecast.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center.  Griffin Canning is 25-35 with a 4.75 ERA in 517 2/3 innings in the big leagues.  JP Sears is 23-31 with a 4.33 ERA in 436 innings in his career for the A's.

Canning allowed 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against Oakland.  Sears has allowed 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his career against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 8

The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  It's rare you see a total of 8 or lower in Cincinnati, and we'll take advantage today with 10 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to right-center.

Both offenses are heating up as the Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last seven games with the OVER going 5-2 in those seven games.  The Reds are coming off a 6-run effort at San Francisco.

Bailey Falter is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Falter allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in a 10-4 loss to the Yankees in his last start.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati, both of which came last season.

Brady Singer is 38-44 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 126 career starts.  Singer allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings to the Brewers in his last start.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 19 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Pittsburgh.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Rays OVER 8.5

The Rays are playing their home games this season at George M. Steinbrenner Field which is a Triple-A park.  It's one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and runs should be plentiful in Tampa Bay home games all season.

The forecast looks great for a slug fest with temps in the 70's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  The ball will be flying out, and this total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving these two starting pitchers today.

Bryce Elder has allowed 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 innings in his last four starts for the Braves.  Elder allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Tampa Bay.

Taj Bradley has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings in two starts this season.  Bradley allowed 4 earned runs and one homer in 5 innings in his lone career start against Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Los Angeles Lakers -9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers would clinch the No. 3 seed with a win Friday night.  They want to handle their business tonight and not have to worry about going on the road to beat the Blazers in their regular season finale.  A win would set the Lakers up for a potential 2nd round series with the Houston Rockets and allow them to avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder until the Western Conference Finals.

The Rockets are locked into the No. 2 seed.  They have nothing to play for, and they played like it in a 134-117 road loss to the Clippers last time out.  I can't see them showing up tonight, especially not wanting to give the Lakers any more ammo with a potential 2nd round series looming.  They've already won two of three meetings with the Lakers so they wouldn't mind facing them in the playoffs.

VanVleet, Sengun, Thompson and Smith Jr. all sat out the last game for the Rockets after clinching the No. 2 seed.  Green only played 15 minutes.  Those four are all on the injury report again for this one, and even if they do play it will be limited minutes, and I can't see them being motivated at all.  The Lakers are fully healthy, and I'll gladly back the the team with something to play for at home tonight.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

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No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has put together a 2989-2521 NBA Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $262,540! He is a 8-Time Top 10 NBA Capper (#1 2023-24, #1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #3 2021-22, #3 2017-18, #8 2008-09, #10 2015-16, #10 2011-12) as well! He is also on a 1279-1027 NBA Run over the long haul! Jack finished as the No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper in 2023-24 thanks to his 496-392 NBA Run since last season!

Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He is riding a 989-848 MLB Run dating back to 2021 that has $1,000/game players up $79,660! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230 thanks to a 162-122 MLB Run since last season!

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15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5

The Denver Nuggets responded well to the Mike Malone firing.  They beat the Kings 124-116 as 124-116 as 4.5-point road favorites in their first game since firing Malone.  They have a ton to play for with only 3 games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West, and they desperately don't want to have to play in the play-in.  If they win out they will be the 3rd or 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the 1st round.

But this is as much a fade of the Grizzlies as it is a play on the Nuggets.  The Grizzlies are coming off a 141-125 home loss to the Timberwolves last night.  So they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in 4 days, plus in altitude in Denver to boot.  Jackson Jr. played 37 minutes, Bane 38 and Morant 36 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.

The Nuggets should be very fresh after having yesterday off and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Denver owns Memphis going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Grizzlies with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11.5

The Toronto Raptors are locked in to their spot in the NBA lottery.  Even if they weren't, they clearly continue to play hard.  The Raptors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall and have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA all season.

The Mavericks are getting too much respect here with the fact that they still have something to play for, technically.  But the Mavericks trail the Kings by one game and they lose the tiebreaker with the Kings for the 9th seed and home-court advantage in the play-in.  They would have to win out and have the Kings lose out, which they know is unlikely considering the Kings host the Suns in their next game.  The Suns have quit on their season.

I also think it's a flat spot for the Mavericks for another reason.  They are coming off their huge game against the Lakers with Luka Doncic returning to Dallas.  They put a lot into that game and came up short, and it's the type of loss that could beat them twice.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Kings OVER 226.5

The Clippers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch now that they've gotten healthy.  They are 13-7 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  Their last three games have all been shootouts combining for 239 points with the Mavs, 239 with the Spurs and 251 with the Rockets.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last nine games overall.

The Kings are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They have gone for 227 or more combined points in five consecutive games.  This total of 226.5 is very low for a game involving the Kings and Clippers right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Bucks/Pistons NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -4.5

The Detroit Pistons get to play the Milwaukee Bucks twice in their final two games.  If they win both, they will overtake the Bucks for the 5th seed.  They showed a lot of fight last night erasing a double-digit deficit to beat the Knicks 115-106 at home.

While it will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Pistons, they are still going to be the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to last game.  Meanwhile, the Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 5th game in 7 days.  They are already without Lillard and Portis and I wouldn't be surprised if they are cautious with Giannis tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +11.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and the best record in the NBA thus home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They have zero motivation these final two games and will be playing all their backups.

The Utah Jazz no longer have any reason to tank.  They have clinched one of the three worst records in the NBA and will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick as a result.  They are trying to win these final games now.

That was evident last time out when they pulled off the 133-126 (OT) upset as 6.5-point underdogs to the Blazers.  They were celebrating like they won the title.  Look for them to relish this opportunity to beat the top team in the West even if they aren't playing their regulars.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Jazz OVER 231

Two teams with nothing to play for tonight square off in a game that should feature all offense and zero defense due to the circumstances.  The Jazz are already locked in to a Bottom 3 record in the NBA which gives them a 14% chance of the No. 1 pick.  The Thunder are already locked into the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 281, 259, 252 and 248 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Thunder rested their starters last game and still showed they have plenty of offensive firepower when that's the case.  They are still an elite offensive team but take a big step back defensively without their main guys.  The Thunder beat the Suns 125-112 for 237 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in Thunder last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Jazz with 237 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Rockets/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225

The Lakers have put up big numbers offensively whenever LeBron, Doncic and Reeves have been on the court and healthy.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They will do the heavy lifting in leading us to an easy OVER winner.

The Houston Rockets are locked into the No. 2 seed with nothing to play for.  They played all their backups last game and while their backups are loaded with offensive talent with the likes of Whitmore, SHeppard and Holiday leading the way, they are terrible defensively.

That was on display last time out in their 134-117 road loss to the Clippers that saw 251 combined points.  They shot 51% as a team including 50% from 3-point range, but they allowed 53% shooting and 51% from 3-point range to the Clippers.  Everything will come easy for the Lakers tonight, but the Rockets will do enough as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -12

The Golden State Warriors are desperate to avoid the play-in.  They currently sit in 7th place in the West tied with 6th place Memphis.  There is only two games separating them and the 3rd place Lakers.  They have a lot to play for.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly tanking with all the guys they are resting.  They are without Simons, Henderson, Grant, Avidja and Ayton and could be without Sharpe tonight.  They don't care about winning this game.  They were upset as 6.5-point favorites by the tanking Jazz last time out.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Bulls are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 230 or more combined points in all 12 games.

The Washington Wizards are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards and Bulls have combined for at least 232 points in each of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Clippers -6

There are only 3 games separating the 3rd through 8th seeds in the West.  Win out and the Clippers will avoid the play-in.  They are max motivated, and they are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.

The Clippers are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They take on a Sacramento Kings team that really doesn't have much to play for.  They are locked in to the 9th or 10th seed and will be a play-in team.  The only thing left to decide is who gets home-court advantage between them and Dallas.  Well, the Kings own the tiebreaker, so they know they can clinch home court at home against the Suns on Sunday.  The Suns have quit on their season so that will be an easy win if need be.

Injuries are also a problem for the Kings right now.  They are without Malik Monk and could be without Keegan Murray.  They are coming off an 8-point home loss to the Nuggets.  I expect them to get blown out by the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Phoenix Suns have no business being favored against anyone.  The Suns are 0-8 SU in their last eight games and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  They have already been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

The Spurs are locked into their position in the NBA lottery.  They have no incentive to tank anymore.  They have been competitive here down the stretch even when most thought they should be tanking.

The Spurs have gone 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a 114-111 upset road win at Golden State as 17.5-point dogs.  They celebrated like they won the title, so these games clearly mean something to them.  They only lost by 5 to the Clippers as 12.5-point road dogs, and the Clippers are playing as well as anyone.  They lost by 1 to the Cavs as 12.5-point dogs, and they upset the Nuggets as road dogs outright.  Bet the Spurs Friday.